Wait a minute, Goldman Sachs warns AI investment may be overlooking other opportunities

Goldman Sachs said the surge in artificial intelligence spending may be crowding out other business activity, though it found only limited evidence of that effect so far.

In a note to clients, analyst Jessica Rindels estimated AI investment in the U.S. will total almost $600 billion in 2026, “equivalent to nearly 2% of US GDP,” and has amounted to over 10% of business fixed investment in recent quarters.

Rindels believes the rapid growth raises the question of whether it is displacing other spending, particularly because so much AI outlay goes on imported technology goods.

On displacing other technology investment, Goldman noted hyperscalers financed much of their AI push by reducing buybacks and have been “willing to borrow and appear undeterred by high interest rates.”

Among businesses consuming AI services, its survey indicated costs remain modest, with about two-thirds funded by cuts to other spending.

On construction, Goldman said data center spending has risen to 9% of private nonresidential construction, but this coincided with a decline in subsidized manufacturing facilities that offset demand for resources, leaving “only limited signs of crowd-out nationally.”