The Gold Standard, Goldman Sachs warning that uncertainty around AI

AI capital expenditure (capex) surprises and rising fears of disruption have injected fresh volatility into equity markets, with Goldman Sachs warning that uncertainty around AI winners and losers is unlikely to fade quickly.

Recent weeks have seen a clear split in performance, the bank highlighted, with memory stocks rallying while software shares have fallen sharply. But while near-term earnings have remained resilient, investors are increasingly focused on longer-term disruption risks facing the industry, Goldman analysts said.

The Wall Street firm expects hyperscaler spending to remain robust, with consensus forecasts now pointing to $667 billions of capex in 2026, up 62% year over year. However, the bank continues to anticipate a peak in the growth rate later this year, warning that parts of the AI infrastructure complex could face pressure if spending momentum slows.

“A deceleration in the quarterly growth rate is likely in late 2026,” analysts led by Ryan Hammond said in a note, which could leave some AI infrastructure stocks exposed. They warned that both revenue growth and valuations in parts of the group appear vulnerable to a slowdown in spending.

Even where share gains have been earnings-driven, the recent dislocation between Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) price and earnings highlights the difficulty of sustaining strong returns amid investor concerns about “over-earning,” the analysts said.