Driving traffic, Adobe sees AI-driven retail traffic surging as paid search growth slows

AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail websites is expected to surge 130% this holiday season, outpacing growth in paid search and signaling a shift in how shoppers discover products, Adobe forecast on Monday.

Traffic referred by AI tools is expected to rise 159% on Thanksgiving, 95% on Black Friday and 88% on Cyber Monday, Adobe said. Paid search traffic, by contrast, is forecast to grow just 4%, while social media traffic is expected to increase 17%.

The shift comes as shoppers increasingly use AI to research and compare products. In a July survey of 5,000 consumers, 77% of respondents who had used AI for online shopping said it increased their confidence in purchases, while 69% said it made them less likely to return items.

Adobe forecast U.S. online holiday sales of $275.1 billion from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, up 6.7% from a year earlier. Cyber Week, covering Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is expected to generate $47.5 billion, up 7.4% and accounting for about 17% of the season’s spending.